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June 26, 2024
PFF’s Judah Fortgang Shares His 5 Essential Tips to Gain an Edge in Sports Betting Markets
On this episode of Linecraft, I was joined by Judah Fortgang, a leading expert in sports analytics and a professional bettor. With a background in political philosophy and a passion for sports, Judah has carved out a unique niche in the world of sports betting. He currently works in R&D and betting at Pro Football Focus (PFF), where he leverages his analytical skills and deep understanding of football to identify edges in the betting markets.
Throughout our conversation, Judah shared his approach to gaining an edge in sports betting by challenging conventional wisdom and looking beyond surface-level trends. He emphasizes the importance of understanding how markets price odds, identifying unique factors that others may overlook, and embracing the inherent randomness of sports outcomes. By combining rigorous analysis with a willingness to question the status quo, Judah has developed a winning strategy that can help bettors of all levels up their game and get more wins.
You can watch the full episode here:
Dive into these five key takeaways from my discussion with Judah Fortgang below:
- (02:07) Understanding Market Pricing and Identifying Inefficiencies
- (25:30) Identifying Unique Team and Game-Specific Factors That the Market May Overlook
- (27:03) Exploiting the Strengths of Being a Market Taker
- (33:19) Continuously Learning and Adapting to Stay Ahead in the Sports Betting Industry
- (38:19) Embracing Randomness and Considering the Possibility of Unlikely Events
1. Understanding Market Pricing and Identifying Inefficiencies
Judah's approach to sports betting revolves around a deep understanding of how markets price odds and identifying situations where he believes the market is mispriced. As he explains:
"What I'm always trying to do is understand why exactly the market is saying what they're saying. And I am perfectly happy to disagree if I think I have some sort of compelling evidence to the contrary."
By focusing on the underlying reasons behind market pricing, Judah is able to spot inefficiencies and capitalize on them. This requires a deep understanding of how odds are set and a willingness to question the market consensus when his own analysis suggests an opportunity.
2. Identifying Unique Team and Game-Specific Factors That the Market May Overlook
A key aspect of Judah's strategy involves looking beyond general market trends and digging into the specific contexts of each team and game.
"Say the league average distribution is 60%. But the Miami Dolphins have two superstar wide receivers and one healthy running back this week. That number, which is usually 70%, is actually 90, 95%. Those three guys are going to get 95% of the touches, whereas what's priced in is 70%. That's a huge value."
By identifying these unique factors, such as the Dolphins' concentrated distribution of touches among their top playmakers, Judah is able to find edges that the broader market may be overlooking. This requires a deep knowledge of each team's personnel, scheme, and tendencies, as well as the ability to recognize when these factors create exploitable mispricing in the betting markets.
3. Exploiting the Strengths of Being a Market Taker
As a market taker, Judah is not setting the lines himself but rather looking for opportunities to capitalize on mispricing by the market makers. He explains:
"Market makers have the benefit of being able to put out markets that are almost always right. And most people are not really going to create this really complex way of thinking where they're going to be able to pick off every outlier. But as a market taker, it's a dream for me because I know this thing can't be modeled."
By focusing on finding outlier opportunities that the market makers may have missed, Judah is able to exploit the strengths of his position as a market taker. This involves constantly scanning the markets for mispriced lines and being ready to pounce when an opportunity presents itself.
4. Continuously Learning and Adapting to Stay Ahead in the Sports Betting Industry
Judah emphasizes the importance of continuous learning and adaptation in the rapidly evolving world of sports betting.
"If I've learned anything from this industry, it is that what was true two or three years ago is not what is true now and it will not be what is true in two to three years time."
By staying curious, asking questions, and being open to new ideas, Judah positions himself to stay ahead of the curve in an industry where change is constant. This requires a willingness to challenge one's own assumptions, learn from both successes and failures, and continuously refine one's approach based on new information and insights.
5. Embracing Randomness and Considering the Possibility of Unlikely Events
Finally, Judah stresses the value of accepting the inherent randomness in sports and being open to the possibility of unlikely events occurring.
"There's so much randomness. These events do happen and you don't want to try and predict the Black Swan, but be aware that Black Swans can happen."
By not getting too caught up in the idea that something can't happen just because it hasn't happened before, Judah is able to identify valuable betting opportunities and protect his downside when the unexpected occurs. This mindset allows him to take a more nuanced view of risk and opportunity, and to position himself to capitalize on mispricing that may arise from the market's failure to properly account for the possibility of unlikely events.
Questions?
We have answers
Novig is the first prediction market for sports. We were tired of betting against sportsbooks that take 10% cuts of winnings and limit/ban winning users, so we built a peer-to-peer exchange where you compete directly against other users in the Novig community rather than against the house.
When you place orders on Novig, you are weighing in with your own knowledge, research, and opinions on sports events, so the odds on our platform reflect what the Novig market believes is the fair value of a given event. We are distinct from traditional sportsbooks in that we allow users to offer their own odds (ie, name your own price) if you don’t like the market odds, which you can do by placing a “Make Order” on the Order Slip.
We have two different modes: Novig Coins and Novig Cash. Novig Coins are unredeemable and are used to play for fun, and Novig Cash is a virtual currency that can be used to enter sweepstakes for the chance to win cash prizes. No purchase is necessary for Novig Cash.
Novig Coins are used to play for fun. They provide the opportunity to express one’s predictions on sports events, win more Novig Coins, and compete against the Novig community. Novig Coins can be purchased in the Novig App, and they can be claimed daily or when one’s balance is below 100 Novig Coins. They are unredeemable and non-transferable.
Novig Cash is a virtual currency that is used to participate in Novig's sweepstakes. Novig Cash is free to claim and Novig Cash won from gameplay can be used to enter additional sweepstakes or redeemed for cash prizes, subject to eligibility verification, minimum and maximum redemption limits, and all requirements in the Sweepstakes Rules and Terms of Use.
It can be collected for free as a bonus with purchases of Novig Coins or via one of our alternative methods of entry. No purchase is necessary to obtain Novig Cash. Please see our Sweepstakes Rules for complete details.
If you win Novig Cash by participating in sweepstakes games, you may redeem the Novig Cash for real cash prizes, subject to minimum and maximum redemption limits, but you must verify your eligibility and comply with all requirements, in accordance with our Terms of Use. The current minimum redemption of Novig Cash is $20, and the current maximum redemption of Novig Cash is $5,000 for a single redemption and $10,000 per day, except in New York and Florida where the maximum daily redemption is $5,000.
Sweepstakes are promotional games with prizes for the winners. They are used to promote the sale of products — in our case, Novig Coins — and have been legitimately used by businesses in the United States for decades.
Unlike traditional sports betting where you wager real money on sports outcomes, sweepstakes involve no real money gambling. A sweepstakes is a game of chance where participants can win prizes without any requirement to make a purchase. Participants use Novig Cash to play sweepstakes games for the chance to win prizes.
We are the platform where winners play. Our research indicates that players are over 10x more likely to win on Novig compared to our competitors. On other platforms, if you are consistently winning, you are likely going to get limited or frozen out entirely. At Novig, winners are welcome.
We also offer faster in-game trading, more transparency, and a number of innovative features like Make Orders, liquidity screens where you can view multiple levels of the Order Book, position tracking, and a generous rewards program.
We offer moneyline, spread, totals, and player prop markets in NFL, NBA, NHL, MLB, NCAAF, NCAAB, NCAAW, and WNBA. In the coming months, we will expand our offerings to include other sports (tennis, UFC, golf, soccer) parlays, SGPs, and other exotic markets.
Yes! Novig was founded by Jacob Fortinsky and Kelechi Ukah and has raised $7M from over 30 leading venture capital firms and angel investors including Joe Montana, Y Combinator, Lux Capital, Paul Graham, and founders of companies like Dropbox and Instacart. You can read more in Forbes.
Additionally, Novig is partnered with trusted, industry-leading payments gateways to allow for the secure and trusted redemption of Novig Cash, and we work with industry-leading counsel to ensure our full compliance with applicable laws and regulations.
On Novig, you don’t have to just take the odds that the market is offering. You can set your own.
For example, let’s say you want to put 1000 Novig Coins on the Cowboys to win against the 49ers and you see that the best odds are currently -330 for 49ers and +240 for the Cowboys. Instead of just taking the Cowboys at +240, you can change your Order type to Make on the Order Slip, and enter in whatever odds you’d like, say +300.
Those odds are then offered to the rest of the Novig community so the 49ers odds would update to -300 and when another player on the app takes the other side, you will be notified that your order is filled and your payout would be 4000 Novig Coins, instead of 3400. If your order remains unmatched, it will be canceled automatically when the game starts, or you can cancel it from the Portfolio screen at any time and the Coins will be returned to your wallet.
Novig is available to users 21+ across the United States, except in the following states: AL, CO, ID, LA, MI, MT, NV, and TN. Eligibility may vary month-to-month, and you are responsible for determining whether you are located in an eligible jurisdiction. For more information on eligibility and availability, see our Terms of Use and Sweepstakes Rules.
It's a great question and one that gets to the heart of how we're different from traditional sportsbooks. Our revenue model is actually quite simple. We make money in two ways.
First, we act as a market maker on our own platform. That means in addition to letting users trade directly against each other, we're also providing liquidity and acting as a participant in the market. This helps keep markets active even when user liquidity is low and solves the “cold start problem” from day one.
In other words, if you want to participate in a niche market where there isn’t any counterparty, we will serve as the counterparty. In the most liquid markets — like NFL moneyline markets — we expect the vast majority of trades to be directly peer-to-peer where we don’t take a cut, but in less liquid markets, we expect most trades will be against Novig, where we will have 1-4% spreads.
Second, for our highest volume users - think professionals and hedge funds - we have a fee structure. But for the vast majority of users, we're not taking a cut at all. When two users play against each other, we're not touching the winnings. That means if you put up 100 Novig Cash and your buddy puts up 150 Novig Cash, the winner gets 250 Novig Cash, whereas on virtually any other platform the house would take 8-10% of the winnings, so you’d only get 230.
This is a complete paradigm shift in the industry. We're the only platform in the world that doesn't take a cut from most of our users' winnings. It's a game changer, and it's at the core of our mission to build the fairest, most transparent platform possible.
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