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September 18, 2024
One Wall Street Veteran's Big Bet on Small Gaming Companies
Joel Simkins has 25 years on Wall Street under his belt, from crunching numbers as an equity research analyst to working with big banks like Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank. Now he's launched his own company, believing there is a gap in the market.
XST Capital Group is a boutique investment bank in the digital gaming space, helping smaller companies navigate the choppy waters of fundraising and M&A.
In this episode, Joel shares his takes on the state of the sports betting industry. He speaks to how betting has become mainstream and why he thinks it's here to stay. He also breaks down the rise of new players in the industry, the growing interest in sports you might not expect, and how this isn't just happening in the U.S.
Interested to hear where Joel thinks the industry is headed?
Tune into the whole episode here:
Here are the Sparknotes for some of my favorite moments from the episode.
From Back Rooms to Primetime
It wasn't that long ago when placing a play on a game meant knowing a guy who knew a guy, or taking a trip to Vegas. Things have changed fast and Joel is confident this wont’ be short-lived.
"Sports betting, no matter what flavor you're taking it on, is very mainstream. It's in the American consciousness and here to stay. Whether it's DFS, DFS plus, or sweepstakes, these businesses are here to stay."
Sometimes we need to step back and appreciate the huge cultural shift we are living through. Gameplay has gone from being in the shadows to being on every other commercial you see. For players, it means more options and better technology. For the industry, it's opened up a flood of new customers and opportunities. But as betting becomes more accessible, we need to keep pace in terms of responsible gameplay. It's a balancing act between growth and ethical considerations.
A Diverse Ecosystem Emerging
While a few big names stand out, the industry becoming mainstream doesn’t mean it’s just a few companies with a seat at the table:
"There's a much larger ecosystem than people realize. There are tons of companies innovating. If you’d asked me late last year or earlier this year, 'Hey, would you stay with the mainstream large investment banks for the rest of your career?' I would have said yes. But I really had this idea to start what I think is an underserved marketplace."
You've got tech startups bringing AI and machine learning into the mix. There are companies focused on improving the user experience, others working on more accurate odds-making. All combined are driving innovation and creating a more resilient industry. We've got a whole ecosystem of companies pushing each other to do better. That's good news for players, who end up with better products and more choices.
The Rise of Niche Sports Markets
And it's not all about football and basketball anymore. Joel highlighted that as the industry expands, so do the interests of players:
"If you go to any betting industry conference right now, the talk of the town is WNBA. These new categories, whether it's WNBA, different parts of mixed martial arts, boxing, or the resurgence of interest around Jake Paul and some of his events…”
This is another sign that the industry is maturing and diversifying. By gaining playing traction in new sports, companies can ease the seasonal ups and downs that have hurt the industry. It's also opening up new demographics. The rise of the WNBA, for example, could bring more women into the world of sports betting. As betting interest increases, so does viewership, creating a cycle that could elevate both markets to new levels.
The Global Market of Sports Betting
And this isn't just happening in the U.S. - Joel explained:
"This is very much a global business. That also gets me really excited about our digital gaming landscape. There is a ton of interesting stuff going on, whether it's Europe, which is obviously about 20 years ahead of us here in the US, or Latin America and South America. There's certainly more to come."
Each market brings its own challenges and opportunities. In Europe, mature markets are grappling with tightening regulations. At the same time, emerging markets in Latin America are just beginning to tap into the potential of the industry. This creates opportunities for companies to diversify their risk and learn from different regulatory environments. Innovations that work in one market could quickly spread to others, pushing the pace of change industry-wide.
The M&A Era in Sports Betting
With all this growth, you know what comes next - the big companies start shopping. Joel sees it coming:
"Deal flow is going to certainly accelerate. We're definitely on the front end of that. And that's partly why I launched XST Capital. We feel like there's going to be a major uptick in consolidation in the space… I think you're seeing that the large companies recognize that innovation is not really core in their DNA."
This M&A activity signals a new phase for the industry. By acquiring smaller, more agile companies, the giants can adapt to changing markets and user preferences. For smaller companies and startups, this creates opportunities to become an acquisition target. This will drive even more innovation as smaller players compete to develop the next big thing. However, there's also a risk of consolidation leading to less competition, so striking the right balance will be crucial for the long-term health of the industry.
Questions?
We have answers
Novig is the first prediction market for sports. We were tired of betting against sportsbooks that take 10% cuts of winnings and limit/ban winning users, so we built a peer-to-peer exchange where you compete directly against other users in the Novig community rather than against the house.
When you place orders on Novig, you are weighing in with your own knowledge, research, and opinions on sports events, so the odds on our platform reflect what the Novig market believes is the fair value of a given event. We are distinct from traditional sportsbooks in that we allow users to offer their own odds (ie, name your own price) if you don’t like the market odds, which you can do by placing a “Make Order” on the Order Slip.
We have two different modes: Novig Coins and Novig Cash. Novig Coins are unredeemable and are used to play for fun, and Novig Cash is a virtual currency that can be used to enter sweepstakes for the chance to win cash prizes. No purchase is necessary for Novig Cash.
Novig Coins are used to play for fun. They provide the opportunity to express one’s predictions on sports events, win more Novig Coins, and compete against the Novig community. Novig Coins can be purchased in the Novig App, and they can be claimed daily or when one’s balance is below 100 Novig Coins. They are unredeemable and non-transferable.
Novig Cash is a virtual currency that is used to participate in Novig's sweepstakes. Novig Cash is free to claim and Novig Cash won from gameplay can be used to enter additional sweepstakes or redeemed for cash prizes, subject to eligibility verification, minimum and maximum redemption limits, and all requirements in the Sweepstakes Rules and Terms of Use.
It can be collected for free as a bonus with purchases of Novig Coins or via one of our alternative methods of entry. No purchase is necessary to obtain Novig Cash. Please see our Sweepstakes Rules for complete details.
If you win Novig Cash by participating in sweepstakes games, you may redeem the Novig Cash for real cash prizes, subject to minimum and maximum redemption limits, but you must verify your eligibility and comply with all requirements, in accordance with our Terms of Use. The current minimum redemption of Novig Cash is $20, and the current maximum redemption of Novig Cash is $5,000 for a single redemption and $10,000 per day, except in New York and Florida where the maximum daily redemption is $5,000.
Sweepstakes are promotional games with prizes for the winners. They are used to promote the sale of products — in our case, Novig Coins — and have been legitimately used by businesses in the United States for decades.
Unlike traditional sports betting where you wager real money on sports outcomes, sweepstakes involve no real money gambling. A sweepstakes is a game of chance where participants can win prizes without any requirement to make a purchase. Participants use Novig Cash to play sweepstakes games for the chance to win prizes.
We are the platform where winners play. Our research indicates that players are over 10x more likely to win on Novig compared to our competitors. On other platforms, if you are consistently winning, you are likely going to get limited or frozen out entirely. At Novig, winners are welcome.
We also offer faster in-game trading, more transparency, and a number of innovative features like Make Orders, liquidity screens where you can view multiple levels of the Order Book, position tracking, and a generous rewards program.
We offer moneyline, spread, totals, and player prop markets in NFL, NBA, NHL, MLB, NCAAF, NCAAB, NCAAW, and WNBA. In the coming months, we will expand our offerings to include other sports (tennis, UFC, golf, soccer) parlays, SGPs, and other exotic markets.
Yes! Novig was founded by Jacob Fortinsky and Kelechi Ukah and has raised $7M from over 30 leading venture capital firms and angel investors including Joe Montana, Y Combinator, Lux Capital, Paul Graham, and founders of companies like Dropbox and Instacart. You can read more in Forbes.
Additionally, Novig is partnered with trusted, industry-leading payments gateways to allow for the secure and trusted redemption of Novig Cash, and we work with industry-leading counsel to ensure our full compliance with applicable laws and regulations.
On Novig, you don’t have to just take the odds that the market is offering. You can set your own.
For example, let’s say you want to put 1000 Novig Coins on the Cowboys to win against the 49ers and you see that the best odds are currently -330 for 49ers and +240 for the Cowboys. Instead of just taking the Cowboys at +240, you can change your Order type to Make on the Order Slip, and enter in whatever odds you’d like, say +300.
Those odds are then offered to the rest of the Novig community so the 49ers odds would update to -300 and when another player on the app takes the other side, you will be notified that your order is filled and your payout would be 4000 Novig Coins, instead of 3400. If your order remains unmatched, it will be canceled automatically when the game starts, or you can cancel it from the Portfolio screen at any time and the Coins will be returned to your wallet.
Novig is available to users 21+ across the United States, except in the following states: AL, CO, ID, LA, MI, MT, NV, and TN. Eligibility may vary month-to-month, and you are responsible for determining whether you are located in an eligible jurisdiction. For more information on eligibility and availability, see our Terms of Use and Sweepstakes Rules.
It's a great question and one that gets to the heart of how we're different from traditional sportsbooks. Our revenue model is actually quite simple. We make money in two ways.
First, we act as a market maker on our own platform. That means in addition to letting users trade directly against each other, we're also providing liquidity and acting as a participant in the market. This helps keep markets active even when user liquidity is low and solves the “cold start problem” from day one.
In other words, if you want to participate in a niche market where there isn’t any counterparty, we will serve as the counterparty. In the most liquid markets — like NFL moneyline markets — we expect the vast majority of trades to be directly peer-to-peer where we don’t take a cut, but in less liquid markets, we expect most trades will be against Novig, where we will have 1-4% spreads.
Second, for our highest volume users - think professionals and hedge funds - we have a fee structure. But for the vast majority of users, we're not taking a cut at all. When two users play against each other, we're not touching the winnings. That means if you put up 100 Novig Cash and your buddy puts up 150 Novig Cash, the winner gets 250 Novig Cash, whereas on virtually any other platform the house would take 8-10% of the winnings, so you’d only get 230.
This is a complete paradigm shift in the industry. We're the only platform in the world that doesn't take a cut from most of our users' winnings. It's a game changer, and it's at the core of our mission to build the fairest, most transparent platform possible.
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