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August 7, 2024
How Do Markets Work? Exploring Prediction, Betting, and Financial Markets with Novig Co-Foudner & CTO Kelechi Ukah
As the co-founder and CTO of Novig, Kelechi Ukah has been on the front lines of revolutionizing how players engage with sports markets. His unique perspective, shaped by his background in both technology and trading, has made him a trusted and sought-after voice in this industry.
In this episode, Kelechi and I got into a wide-ranging conversation that explored the intricacies of prediction markets, betting markets, and financial markets. In this blog we will explore the fundamental similarities and differences between these various markets, but we also got into topics like the influence of sentiment and attention on market dynamics and the challenges of calibration and information consumption in the modern age. Kelechi's insights painted a vivid picture of the complex interplay between information, incentives, and human behavior that drives these markets, offering valuable lessons for players, traders, and curious observers alike.
If this sounds like the episode for you, catch the full thing here:
Let’s go a little deeper into the world of prediction markets, betting markets, and financial markets with some key nuggets from this week’s conversation:
- Markets as Information Discovery Mechanisms (01:41)
- The Bounded Nature of Prediction and Betting Markets (02:38)
- Key Assumptions Underlying Prediction Market Efficacy (13:12)
- The Importance of Outcome Independence (15:05)
1. Markets as Information Discovery Mechanisms
At their core, prediction markets, betting markets, and financial markets are united by their fundamental purpose: surfacing and aggregating information. As Kelechi explains,
"Markets are the most pure form of epistemology in the sense that they surface information that people have and provide a method of converting private information into public knowledge."
Whether the information pertains to the probability of a candidate being elected, a team winning a game, or the fair future value of a stock, markets serve as a tool for transforming disparate private insights into a unified public signal. By providing a platform for individuals to express their beliefs through the buying and selling of contracts or shares, markets incentivize the revelation of valuable knowledge that might otherwise remain hidden.
2. The Bounded Nature of Prediction and Betting Markets
While prediction markets, betting markets, and financial markets share a common information discovery function, they differ in one key aspect: the range of possible prices. Kelechi points out,
"The most important distinction mechanically is that prediction markets and betting markets have prices that are bounded between 0% and 100%."
In prediction and betting markets, the price of a contract represents the market's collective estimate of the probability that a given event will occur. Since probabilities are inherently bounded between 0 and 1 (or 0% and 100%), the prices in these markets are constrained within this range. In contrast, financial markets, such as those for stocks, have no upper limit on prices, as there is theoretically no ceiling on the potential future value of a company.
3. Key Assumptions Underlying Prediction Market Efficacy
For prediction markets to function effectively as information aggregation mechanisms, certain key assumptions must hold. One crucial assumption, as Kelechi explains, is the presence of sufficient liquidity:
"The more important assumption is that you have a saturation of liquidity, meaning you have enough people trading in the market, and there isn't any single individual who can artificially inflate the price."
Prediction markets rely on the wisdom of the crowd, the idea that the collective judgment of many individuals can be more accurate than the estimates of a single expert. However, for this collective wisdom to emerge, there must be a sufficient number of participants trading in the market, each contributing their unique insights and information.
4. The Importance of Outcome Independence
Building on the idea of market efficiency, another key assumption for the proper functioning of prediction markets is that participants should not have the ability to influence the outcome of the event being predicted. As Kelechi notes,
"Another important assumption of the efficacy of prediction markets is that the participants don't have influence on the outcome, which is probably a no-brainer."
If market participants can directly impact the likelihood of an event occurring, the price may no longer reflect the market's unbiased estimate of the probability, but rather the intentions of those with the power to shape the outcome. This could lead to distorted prices and reduced market efficiency, undermining the key assumption of sufficient liquidity and diverse participation discussed above. To maintain the integrity of prediction markets, it’s essential that participants are incentivized to reveal their true beliefs about the probability of an event, rather than to manipulate the outcome for their own benefit.
Questions?
We have answers
Novig is the first prediction market for sports. We were tired of betting against sportsbooks that take 10% cuts of winnings and limit/ban winning users, so we built a peer-to-peer exchange where you compete directly against other users in the Novig community rather than against the house.
When you place orders on Novig, you are weighing in with your own knowledge, research, and opinions on sports events, so the odds on our platform reflect what the Novig market believes is the fair value of a given event. We are distinct from traditional sportsbooks in that we allow users to offer their own odds (ie, name your own price) if you don’t like the market odds, which you can do by placing a “Make Order” on the Order Slip.
We have two different modes: Novig Coins and Novig Cash. Novig Coins are unredeemable and are used to play for fun, and Novig Cash is a virtual currency that can be used to enter sweepstakes for the chance to win cash prizes. No purchase is necessary for Novig Cash.
Novig Coins are used to play for fun. They provide the opportunity to express one’s predictions on sports events, win more Novig Coins, and compete against the Novig community. Novig Coins can be purchased in the Novig App, and they can be claimed daily or when one’s balance is below 100 Novig Coins. They are unredeemable and non-transferable.
Novig Cash is a virtual currency that is used to participate in Novig's sweepstakes. Novig Cash is free to claim and Novig Cash won from gameplay can be used to enter additional sweepstakes or redeemed for cash prizes, subject to eligibility verification, minimum and maximum redemption limits, and all requirements in the Sweepstakes Rules and Terms of Use.
It can be collected for free as a bonus with purchases of Novig Coins or via one of our alternative methods of entry. No purchase is necessary to obtain Novig Cash. Please see our Sweepstakes Rules for complete details.
If you win Novig Cash by participating in sweepstakes games, you may redeem the Novig Cash for real cash prizes, subject to minimum and maximum redemption limits, but you must verify your eligibility and comply with all requirements, in accordance with our Terms of Use. The current minimum redemption of Novig Cash is $20, and the current maximum redemption of Novig Cash is $5,000 for a single redemption and $10,000 per day, except in New York and Florida where the maximum daily redemption is $5,000.
Sweepstakes are promotional games with prizes for the winners. They are used to promote the sale of products — in our case, Novig Coins — and have been legitimately used by businesses in the United States for decades.
Unlike traditional sports betting where you wager real money on sports outcomes, sweepstakes involve no real money gambling. A sweepstakes is a game of chance where participants can win prizes without any requirement to make a purchase. Participants use Novig Cash to play sweepstakes games for the chance to win prizes.
We are the platform where winners play. Our research indicates that players are over 10x more likely to win on Novig compared to our competitors. On other platforms, if you are consistently winning, you are likely going to get limited or frozen out entirely. At Novig, winners are welcome.
We also offer faster in-game trading, more transparency, and a number of innovative features like Make Orders, liquidity screens where you can view multiple levels of the Order Book, position tracking, and a generous rewards program.
We offer moneyline, spread, totals, and player prop markets in NFL, NBA, NHL, MLB, NCAAF, NCAAB, NCAAW, and WNBA. In the coming months, we will expand our offerings to include other sports (tennis, UFC, golf, soccer) parlays, SGPs, and other exotic markets.
Yes! Novig was founded by Jacob Fortinsky and Kelechi Ukah and has raised $7M from over 30 leading venture capital firms and angel investors including Joe Montana, Y Combinator, Lux Capital, Paul Graham, and founders of companies like Dropbox and Instacart. You can read more in Forbes.
Additionally, Novig is partnered with trusted, industry-leading payments gateways to allow for the secure and trusted redemption of Novig Cash, and we work with industry-leading counsel to ensure our full compliance with applicable laws and regulations.
On Novig, you don’t have to just take the odds that the market is offering. You can set your own.
For example, let’s say you want to put 1000 Novig Coins on the Cowboys to win against the 49ers and you see that the best odds are currently -330 for 49ers and +240 for the Cowboys. Instead of just taking the Cowboys at +240, you can change your Order type to Make on the Order Slip, and enter in whatever odds you’d like, say +300.
Those odds are then offered to the rest of the Novig community so the 49ers odds would update to -300 and when another player on the app takes the other side, you will be notified that your order is filled and your payout would be 4000 Novig Coins, instead of 3400. If your order remains unmatched, it will be canceled automatically when the game starts, or you can cancel it from the Portfolio screen at any time and the Coins will be returned to your wallet.
Novig is available to users 21+ across the United States, except in the following states: AL, CO, ID, LA, MI, MT, NV, and TN. Eligibility may vary month-to-month, and you are responsible for determining whether you are located in an eligible jurisdiction. For more information on eligibility and availability, see our Terms of Use and Sweepstakes Rules.
It's a great question and one that gets to the heart of how we're different from traditional sportsbooks. Our revenue model is actually quite simple. We make money in two ways.
First, we act as a market maker on our own platform. That means in addition to letting users trade directly against each other, we're also providing liquidity and acting as a participant in the market. This helps keep markets active even when user liquidity is low and solves the “cold start problem” from day one.
In other words, if you want to participate in a niche market where there isn’t any counterparty, we will serve as the counterparty. In the most liquid markets — like NFL moneyline markets — we expect the vast majority of trades to be directly peer-to-peer where we don’t take a cut, but in less liquid markets, we expect most trades will be against Novig, where we will have 1-4% spreads.
Second, for our highest volume users - think professionals and hedge funds - we have a fee structure. But for the vast majority of users, we're not taking a cut at all. When two users play against each other, we're not touching the winnings. That means if you put up 100 Novig Cash and your buddy puts up 150 Novig Cash, the winner gets 250 Novig Cash, whereas on virtually any other platform the house would take 8-10% of the winnings, so you’d only get 230.
This is a complete paradigm shift in the industry. We're the only platform in the world that doesn't take a cut from most of our users' winnings. It's a game changer, and it's at the core of our mission to build the fairest, most transparent platform possible.
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We do! Reach out to us via Live Chat or email support@novig.co, and you’ll be connected with one of our customer support reps.