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May 22, 2024
From Betting Tips to Industry Red Tape — 7 Insights from Novig’s Head of Trading, Henry Kerins
On the latest episode of Linecraft, I picked the brain of Henry Kerins, the Head of Trading here at Novig. With a treasure trove of experience as a bettor and his background in tech from his Bloomberg days, he came with plenty to share on the state of the sports betting world and even some tips on being a better bettor.
As someone who has sat on both sides of the table, Henry brings a unique perspective to the conversation. He not only knows all the ins and outs of what it takes to be a sharp bettor but also has a front-row seat to how sportsbooks operate on a day-to-day basis. That combo of experiences allows him to speak confidently on exploiting inefficiencies in the market and why books must be so careful about managing their risk.
In this conversation, Henry and I dove into the cat-and-mouse game between bettors and bookmakers. We explored how the market evolves in real-time as information hits the wire and how the most successful players stay a step ahead. For anyone out there trying to turn a profit as a bettor, it was a masterclass in the kind of thinking and strategies you need to employ.
You definitely don't want to miss a minute of my conversation with Henry. Catch the full episode right here:
In the meantime, here are 7 golden nuggets to chew on.
1. Sharpen your skills on opening lines
Henry's #1 piece of advice for bettors looking to get to the next level? It's all about betting opening lines and seeing how you fare against the closing number.
"The lowest hanging fruit, if your goal is just to get better, is to start by betting openers and then seeing how your bets perform against the close and ignoring results. For a long time, that's all you're really going to need to be focused on."
Why are opening lines key? They tend to be softer targets compared to the razor-sharp lines right before game time. By throwing down on openers and tracking how often you're on the right side of the line moves, you can hone your skills without getting caught up in the day-to-day swings. It's all about trusting the process.
2. Know your teams inside and out
According to Henry, one of the top ways to sniff out a solid bet is to go deep on the quirks and trends of specific teams and leagues. He used a great example from the Colts last season:
"The Colts were a big over team in the second half of last season, partly because of the way Steichen was coaching. You saw that they were doing a ton of design runs with and you realize, ‘Oh, these games are eating up clock in a way that maybe wasn't expected.’"
When you really immerse yourself in the nitty-gritty of how teams are operating – stuff like coaching tendencies and player usage – you can identify spots where the betting market is a step behind. That's how you find your edge.
3. Go in on high-volume markets
For all the ambitious bettors out there shooting to make this a career, Henry broke down what it takes to make consistent profits.
"The longer you go on doing this, the more you land on trying to be sustainable. You have to bet late into major markets. There's nobody really who is making a career of picking off all player prop lines.”
While it's tempting to get cute chasing soft lines in less popular markets, the reality is that the edges there are usually too thin and don't scale well. To make it long-term, you have to roll with the big dogs and beat the closing line in the sharpest, highest-volume markets.
4. Keep an eye out for early sharp action
Wanna know how to stay one step ahead of the masses? Henry spoke to me about the power of spotting steam moves before they pop off market-wide:
"If I saw sharp bets leaking on a specific book overnight and the next day after limits go up the whole market moves that direction - as a bettor, I might start thinking about copying that or trying to get to the bottom of it."
When you see a bunch of limit bets pounding a line at a few sharp books, especially overnight, that's often a telltale sign that the wise guys are on the scent of something. If you're quick, you can tag along for the ride before the broader market catches wind. Just remember, the books have to be careful about following suit too quickly to avoid getting taken to the woodshed.
5. Don't fall for pick-selling snake oil
In the wild west of sports betting Twitter, there's no shortage of people hawking hot picks. Henry sounded the alarm on services that promise the moon without giving you the full picture:
"I do think some people will fork up a lot of money for services like those without realizing how quickly their account is going to get limited and that there may not actually be a net positive return.”
Before you pay for a pick service or betting tool, ensure they're not just blathering about insane win rates and nonstop profits. If they're not upfront about the very real chance of your accounts getting jammed from following their plays, run for the hills.
6. Too much red tape drives folks to the black market
Legal sports betting has been a game-changer, but Henry flagged how operators can end up making it a headache for bettors to get in on the action:
"One of the upsides of regulated sports betting is bringing it out into the open, right? Keeping people off of offshores, cracking down on PPH, and human bookies. But, the more obstacles you create for people to be able to bet on regulated apps, how much they have to expose about themselves, and the bank details they have to send. That’s all friction that drives people back into black market and gray market betting."
No one's saying books should let anyone and everyone run wild, but there has to be a middle ground where you can protect folks without making them jump through a million hoops. Every unnecessary step is just another reason for average Joes to stick with their local bookie, who lets them bet with no questions asked.
7. Most bettors want the total package, not just tight lines
A lot of operators get caught up in a race to the bottom on odds, but Henry laid out why that alone isn't enough to really hook most folks:
"Ultimately, people are betting primarily for fun, not to maximize their returns. And that's why I think it's important for us to prioritize building things like same game parlays and player props and really build out a robust product that can rival some of the larger recreational books."
At the end of the day, having slightly better prices is great, but it's just one piece of the puzzle. Most bettors, sharps, and squares alike want the whole package – tons of markets, cool promos, a slick app, and all the bells and whistles. It takes the total package to really build something that can compete with the industry giants.
Questions?
We have answers
Novig is the first prediction market for sports. We were tired of betting against sportsbooks that take 10% cuts of winnings and limit/ban winning users, so we built a peer-to-peer exchange where you compete directly against other users in the Novig community rather than against the house.
When you place orders on Novig, you are weighing in with your own knowledge, research, and opinions on sports events, so the odds on our platform reflect what the Novig market believes is the fair value of a given event. We are distinct from traditional sportsbooks in that we allow users to offer their own odds (ie, name your own price) if you don’t like the market odds, which you can do by placing a “Make Order” on the Order Slip.
We have two different modes: Novig Coins and Novig Cash. Novig Coins are unredeemable and are used to play for fun, and Novig Cash is a virtual currency that can be used to enter sweepstakes for the chance to win cash prizes. No purchase is necessary for Novig Cash.
Novig Coins are used to play for fun. They provide the opportunity to express one’s predictions on sports events, win more Novig Coins, and compete against the Novig community. Novig Coins can be purchased in the Novig App, and they can be claimed daily or when one’s balance is below 100 Novig Coins. They are unredeemable and non-transferable.
Novig Cash is a virtual currency that is used to participate in Novig's sweepstakes. Novig Cash is free to claim and Novig Cash won from gameplay can be used to enter additional sweepstakes or redeemed for cash prizes, subject to eligibility verification, minimum and maximum redemption limits, and all requirements in the Sweepstakes Rules and Terms of Use.
It can be collected for free as a bonus with purchases of Novig Coins or via one of our alternative methods of entry. No purchase is necessary to obtain Novig Cash. Please see our Sweepstakes Rules for complete details.
If you win Novig Cash by participating in sweepstakes games, you may redeem the Novig Cash for real cash prizes, subject to minimum and maximum redemption limits, but you must verify your eligibility and comply with all requirements, in accordance with our Terms of Use. The current minimum redemption of Novig Cash is $20, and the current maximum redemption of Novig Cash is $5,000 for a single redemption and $10,000 per day, except in New York and Florida where the maximum daily redemption is $5,000.
Sweepstakes are promotional games with prizes for the winners. They are used to promote the sale of products — in our case, Novig Coins — and have been legitimately used by businesses in the United States for decades.
Unlike traditional sports betting where you wager real money on sports outcomes, sweepstakes involve no real money gambling. A sweepstakes is a game of chance where participants can win prizes without any requirement to make a purchase. Participants use Novig Cash to play sweepstakes games for the chance to win prizes.
We are the platform where winners play. Our research indicates that players are over 10x more likely to win on Novig compared to our competitors. On other platforms, if you are consistently winning, you are likely going to get limited or frozen out entirely. At Novig, winners are welcome.
We also offer faster in-game trading, more transparency, and a number of innovative features like Make Orders, liquidity screens where you can view multiple levels of the Order Book, position tracking, and a generous rewards program.
We offer moneyline, spread, totals, and player prop markets in NFL, NBA, NHL, MLB, NCAAF, NCAAB, NCAAW, and WNBA. In the coming months, we will expand our offerings to include other sports (tennis, UFC, golf, soccer) parlays, SGPs, and other exotic markets.
Yes! Novig was founded by Jacob Fortinsky and Kelechi Ukah and has raised $7M from over 30 leading venture capital firms and angel investors including Joe Montana, Y Combinator, Lux Capital, Paul Graham, and founders of companies like Dropbox and Instacart. You can read more in Forbes.
Additionally, Novig is partnered with trusted, industry-leading payments gateways to allow for the secure and trusted redemption of Novig Cash, and we work with industry-leading counsel to ensure our full compliance with applicable laws and regulations.
On Novig, you don’t have to just take the odds that the market is offering. You can set your own.
For example, let’s say you want to put 1000 Novig Coins on the Cowboys to win against the 49ers and you see that the best odds are currently -330 for 49ers and +240 for the Cowboys. Instead of just taking the Cowboys at +240, you can change your Order type to Make on the Order Slip, and enter in whatever odds you’d like, say +300.
Those odds are then offered to the rest of the Novig community so the 49ers odds would update to -300 and when another player on the app takes the other side, you will be notified that your order is filled and your payout would be 4000 Novig Coins, instead of 3400. If your order remains unmatched, it will be canceled automatically when the game starts, or you can cancel it from the Portfolio screen at any time and the Coins will be returned to your wallet.
Novig is available to users 21+ across the United States, except in the following states: AL, CO, ID, LA, MI, MT, NV, and TN. Eligibility may vary month-to-month, and you are responsible for determining whether you are located in an eligible jurisdiction. For more information on eligibility and availability, see our Terms of Use and Sweepstakes Rules.
It's a great question and one that gets to the heart of how we're different from traditional sportsbooks. Our revenue model is actually quite simple. We make money in two ways.
First, we act as a market maker on our own platform. That means in addition to letting users trade directly against each other, we're also providing liquidity and acting as a participant in the market. This helps keep markets active even when user liquidity is low and solves the “cold start problem” from day one.
In other words, if you want to participate in a niche market where there isn’t any counterparty, we will serve as the counterparty. In the most liquid markets — like NFL moneyline markets — we expect the vast majority of trades to be directly peer-to-peer where we don’t take a cut, but in less liquid markets, we expect most trades will be against Novig, where we will have 1-4% spreads.
Second, for our highest volume users - think professionals and hedge funds - we have a fee structure. But for the vast majority of users, we're not taking a cut at all. When two users play against each other, we're not touching the winnings. That means if you put up 100 Novig Cash and your buddy puts up 150 Novig Cash, the winner gets 250 Novig Cash, whereas on virtually any other platform the house would take 8-10% of the winnings, so you’d only get 230.
This is a complete paradigm shift in the industry. We're the only platform in the world that doesn't take a cut from most of our users' winnings. It's a game changer, and it's at the core of our mission to build the fairest, most transparent platform possible.
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We do! Reach out to us via Live Chat or email support@novig.co, and you’ll be connected with one of our customer support reps.